Towards cognitive in-operation network planning

Next-generation internet services such as live TV and video on demand require high bandwidth and ultra-low latency. The ever-increasing volume, dynamicity and stringent requirements of these services’ demands are generating new challenges to nowadays telecom networks. To decrease expenses, service-layer content providers are delivering their content near the end users, thus allowing a low latency and tailored content delivery. As a consequence of this, unseen metro and even core traffic dynamicity is arising with changes in the volume and direction of the traffic along the day. A tremendous effort to efficiently manage networks is currently ongoing towards the realisation of 5G networks. This translates in looking for network architectures supporting dynamic resource allocation, fulfilling strict service requirements and minimising the total cost of ownership (TCO). In this regard, in-operation network planning was recently proven to successfully support various network reconfiguration use cases in prospective scenarios. Nevertheless, additional research to extend in-operation planning capabilities from typical reactive optimization schemes to proactive and predictive schemes based on the analysis of network monitoring data is required. A hot topic raising increasing attention is cognitive networking, where an elevated knowledge about the network could be obtained as a result of introducing data analytics in the telecom operator’s infrastructure. By using predictive knowledge about the network traffic, in-operation network planning mechanisms could be enhanced to efficiently adapt the network by means of future traffic prediction, thus achieving cognitive in-operation network planning. In this thesis, we focus on studying mechanisms to enable cognitive in-operation network planning in core networks. In particular, we focus on dynamically reconfiguring virtual network topologies (VNT) at the MPLS layer, covering a number of detailed objectives. First, we start studying mechanisms to allow network traffic flow modelling, from monitoring and data transformation to the estimation of predictive traffic model based on this data. By means of these traffic models, then we tackle a cognitive approach to periodically adapt the core VNT to current and future traffic, using predicted traffic matrices based on origin-destination (OD) predictive models. This optimization approach, named VENTURE, is efficiently solved using dedicated heuristic algorithms and its feasibility is demonstrated in an experimental in-operation network planning environment. Finally, we extend VENTURE to consider core flows dynamicity as a result of metro flows re-routing, which represents a meaningful dynamic traffic scenario. This extension, which entails enhancements to coordinate metro and core network controllers with the aim of allowing fast adaption of core OD traffic models, is evaluated and validated in terms of traffic models accuracy and experimental feasibility.Els serveis d’internet de nova generació tals com la televisió en viu o el vídeo sota demanda requereixen d’un gran ample de banda i d’ultra-baixa latència. L’increment continu del volum, dinamicitat i requeriments d’aquests serveis està generant nous reptes pels teleoperadors de xarxa. Per reduir costs, els proveïdors de contingut estan disposant aquests més a prop dels usuaris finals, aconseguint així una entrega de contingut feta a mida. Conseqüentment, estem presenciant una dinamicitat mai vista en el tràfic de xarxes de metro amb canvis en la direcció i el volum del tràfic al llarg del dia. Actualment, s’està duent a terme un gran esforç cap a la realització de xarxes 5G. Aquest esforç es tradueix en cercar noves arquitectures de xarxa que suportin l’assignació dinàmica de recursos, complint requeriments de servei estrictes i minimitzant el cost total de la propietat. En aquest sentit, recentment s’ha demostrat com l’aplicació de “in-operation network planning” permet exitosament suportar diversos casos d’ús de reconfiguració de xarxa en escenaris prospectius. No obstant, és necessari dur a terme més recerca per tal d’estendre “in-operation network planning” des d’un esquema reactiu d’optimització cap a un nou esquema proactiu basat en l’analítica de dades provinents del monitoritzat de la xarxa. El concepte de xarxes cognitives es també troba al centre d’atenció, on un elevat coneixement de la xarxa s’obtindria com a resultat d’introduir analítica de dades en la infraestructura del teleoperador. Mitjançant un coneixement predictiu sobre el tràfic de xarxa, els mecanismes de in-operation network planning es podrien millorar per adaptar la xarxa eficientment basant-se en predicció de tràfic, assolint així el que anomenem com a “cognitive in-operation network Planning”. En aquesta tesi ens centrem en l’estudi de mecanismes que permetin establir “el cognitive in-operation network Planning” en xarxes de core. En particular, ens centrem en reconfigurar dinàmicament topologies de xarxa virtual (VNT) a la capa MPLS, cobrint una sèrie d’objectius detallats. Primer comencem estudiant mecanismes pel modelat de fluxos de tràfic de xarxa, des del seu monitoritzat i transformació fins a l’estimació de models predictius de tràfic. Posteriorment, i mitjançant aquests models predictius, tractem un esquema cognitiu per adaptar periòdicament la VNT utilitzant matrius de tràfic basades en predicció de parells origen-destí (OD). Aquesta optimització, anomenada VENTURE, és resolta eficientment fent servir heurístiques dedicades i és posteriorment avaluada sota escenaris de tràfic de xarxa dinàmics. A continuació, estenem VENTURE considerant la dinamicitat dels fluxos de tràfic de xarxes de metro, el qual representa un escenari rellevant de dinamicitat de tràfic. Aquesta extensió involucra millores per coordinar els operadors de metro i core amb l’objectiu d’aconseguir una ràpida adaptació de models de tràfic OD. Finalment, proposem dues arquitectures de xarxa necessàries per aplicar els mecanismes anteriors en entorns experimentals, emprant protocols estat-de-l’art com són OpenFlow i IPFIX. La metodologia emprada per avaluar el treball anterior consisteix en una primera avaluació numèrica fent servir un simulador de xarxes íntegrament dissenyat i desenvolupat per a aquesta tesi. Després d’aquesta validació basada en simulació, la factibilitat experimental de les arquitectures de xarxa proposades és avaluada en un entorn de proves distribuït.Postprint (published version

Towards cognitive in-operation network planning

Next-generation internet services such as live TV and video on demand require high bandwidth and ultra-low latency. The ever-increasing volume, dynamicity and stringent requirements of these services’ demands are generating new challenges to nowadays telecom networks. To decrease expenses, service-layer content providers are delivering their content near the end users, thus allowing a low latency and tailored content delivery. As a consequence of this, unseen metro and even core traffic dynamicity is arising with changes in the volume and direction of the traffic along the day. A tremendous effort to efficiently manage networks is currently ongoing towards the realisation of 5G networks. This translates in looking for network architectures supporting dynamic resource allocation, fulfilling strict service requirements and minimising the total cost of ownership (TCO). In this regard, in-operation network planning was recently proven to successfully support various network reconfiguration use cases in prospective scenarios. Nevertheless, additional research to extend in-operation planning capabilities from typical reactive optimization schemes to proactive and predictive schemes based on the analysis of network monitoring data is required. A hot topic raising increasing attention is cognitive networking, where an elevated knowledge about the network could be obtained as a result of introducing data analytics in the telecom operator’s infrastructure. By using predictive knowledge about the network traffic, in-operation network planning mechanisms could be enhanced to efficiently adapt the network by means of future traffic prediction, thus achieving cognitive in-operation network planning. In this thesis, we focus on studying mechanisms to enable cognitive in-operation network planning in core networks. In particular, we focus on dynamically reconfiguring virtual network topologies (VNT) at the MPLS layer, covering a number of detailed objectives. First, we start studying mechanisms to allow network traffic flow modelling, from monitoring and data transformation to the estimation of predictive traffic model based on this data. By means of these traffic models, then we tackle a cognitive approach to periodically adapt the core VNT to current and future traffic, using predicted traffic matrices based on origin-destination (OD) predictive models. This optimization approach, named VENTURE, is efficiently solved using dedicated heuristic algorithms and its feasibility is demonstrated in an experimental in-operation network planning environment. Finally, we extend VENTURE to consider core flows dynamicity as a result of metro flows re-routing, which represents a meaningful dynamic traffic scenario. This extension, which entails enhancements to coordinate metro and core network controllers with the aim of allowing fast adaption of core OD traffic models, is evaluated and validated in terms of traffic models accuracy and experimental feasibility.Els serveis d’internet de nova generació tals com la televisió en viu o el vídeo sota demanda requereixen d’un gran ample de banda i d’ultra-baixa latència. L’increment continu del volum, dinamicitat i requeriments d’aquests serveis està generant nous reptes pels teleoperadors de xarxa. Per reduir costs, els proveïdors de contingut estan disposant aquests més a prop dels usuaris finals, aconseguint així una entrega de contingut feta a mida. Conseqüentment, estem presenciant una dinamicitat mai vista en el tràfic de xarxes de metro amb canvis en la direcció i el volum del tràfic al llarg del dia. Actualment, s’està duent a terme un gran esforç cap a la realització de xarxes 5G. Aquest esforç es tradueix en cercar noves arquitectures de xarxa que suportin l’assignació dinàmica de recursos, complint requeriments de servei estrictes i minimitzant el cost total de la propietat. En aquest sentit, recentment s’ha demostrat com l’aplicació de “in-operation network planning” permet exitosament suportar diversos casos d’ús de reconfiguració de xarxa en escenaris prospectius. No obstant, és necessari dur a terme més recerca per tal d’estendre “in-operation network planning” des d’un esquema reactiu d’optimització cap a un nou esquema proactiu basat en l’analítica de dades provinents del monitoritzat de la xarxa. El concepte de xarxes cognitives es també troba al centre d’atenció, on un elevat coneixement de la xarxa s’obtindria com a resultat d’introduir analítica de dades en la infraestructura del teleoperador. Mitjançant un coneixement predictiu sobre el tràfic de xarxa, els mecanismes de in-operation network planning es podrien millorar per adaptar la xarxa eficientment basant-se en predicció de tràfic, assolint així el que anomenem com a “cognitive in-operation network Planning”. En aquesta tesi ens centrem en l’estudi de mecanismes que permetin establir “el cognitive in-operation network Planning” en xarxes de core. En particular, ens centrem en reconfigurar dinàmicament topologies de xarxa virtual (VNT) a la capa MPLS, cobrint una sèrie d’objectius detallats. Primer comencem estudiant mecanismes pel modelat de fluxos de tràfic de xarxa, des del seu monitoritzat i transformació fins a l’estimació de models predictius de tràfic. Posteriorment, i mitjançant aquests models predictius, tractem un esquema cognitiu per adaptar periòdicament la VNT utilitzant matrius de tràfic basades en predicció de parells origen-destí (OD). Aquesta optimització, anomenada VENTURE, és resolta eficientment fent servir heurístiques dedicades i és posteriorment avaluada sota escenaris de tràfic de xarxa dinàmics. A continuació, estenem VENTURE considerant la dinamicitat dels fluxos de tràfic de xarxes de metro, el qual representa un escenari rellevant de dinamicitat de tràfic. Aquesta extensió involucra millores per coordinar els operadors de metro i core amb l’objectiu d’aconseguir una ràpida adaptació de models de tràfic OD. Finalment, proposem dues arquitectures de xarxa necessàries per aplicar els mecanismes anteriors en entorns experimentals, emprant protocols estat-de-l’art com són OpenFlow i IPFIX. La metodologia emprada per avaluar el treball anterior consisteix en una primera avaluació numèrica fent servir un simulador de xarxes íntegrament dissenyat i desenvolupat per a aquesta tesi. Després d’aquesta validació basada en simulació, la factibilitat experimental de les arquitectures de xarxa proposades és avaluada en un entorn de proves distribuït

Incremental capacity planning in flexgrid optical networks

Les xarxes de comunicacions de fibra òptica necessiten adaptar-se com a resposta a l'evolució del tràfic de dades que han de transportar. Aquesta evolució inclou l'extensió periòdica de la seva capacitat per tal de millorar alguna de les mètriques que caracteritzen el seu funcionament, com per exemple la capacitat de restaurar la connectivitat del tràfic afectat per una fallida en un enllaç. Com a conseqüència de l'increment progressiu de la demanda de tràfic de dades, pot succeïr que alguns enllaços es tornin vulnerables, es a dir, no es pugui assegurar un mínim percentatge de tràfic restaurat en cas de fallida. En aquest projecte es defineix i modelitza formalment el problema d'optimització consistent en incrementar la capacitat de la xarxa, afegint nous enllaços inactius i equipament disponible al inventari amb cost mínim, per tal de reduir la vulnerabilitat fins a un determinat llindar. Es presenten dos mètodes per resoldre'l, a saber, un model de programació lineal entera i una heurística constructiva aleatoritzada. Els dos mètodes seran avaluats numèricament a partir d'un conjunt extens d'instàncies de diferents característiques. Finalment, l'heurística serà integrada en un simulador amb finalitats acadèmiques que emula l'arquitectura i protocols d'una xarxa òptica real

Spectroscopic characterization of Er3+-doped CaF2 nanoparticles: Luminescence concentration quenching, radiation trapping and transition probabilities

Er3+-doped CaF2 nanoparticles (NPs) with variable dopant concentration were synthesized by a direct precipitation method. X-Ray Powder Diffraction, SEM and TEM were used to analize the crystalline structure and morphology. The spectroscopic characterization, as function of the Er3+ content, has been performed under CW and pulsed excitation. Under steady state conditions, it has been found that the intensity of the main emission bands is affected by luminescence quenching processes. The population dynamics, recorded under pulsed excitation, confirms not only the existence of quenching processes but also the occurrence of radiation trapping. The intrinsic transition probabilities of the main Er3+ emitting manifolds, in absence of quenching and radiation trapping, have been estimated through a procedure commonly used in bulk doped materials. A modified Judd-Ofelt analysis has been performed to determine the radiative transition probabilities, radiative lifetimes and branching ratios of the Er3+ levels. Finally, an estimation of the gap law in these NPs is givenThis work has been partially supported by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain) under project COLUMNAS (PID2019–110632RB-I00

Dynamic core VNT adaptability based on predictive metro-flow traffic models

© 2017 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes,creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.MPLS-over-optical virtual network topologies (VNTs) can be adapted to near-future traffic matrices based on predictive models that are estimated by applying data analytics on monitored origin-destination (OD) traffic. However, the deployment of independent SDN controllers for core and metro segments can bring large inefficiencies to this core network reconfiguration based on traffic prediction when traffic flows from metro areas are rerouted to different ingress nodes in the core. In such cases, OD traffic patterns in the core might severely change, thus affecting the quality of the predictive OD models. New traffic model re-estimation usually takes a long time, during which no predictive capabilities are available for the network operator. To alleviate this problem, we propose to extend data analytics to metro networks to obtain predictive models for the metro flows; by knowing how these flows are aggregated into OD pairs in the core, we can also aggregate their predictive models, thus accurately predicting OD traffic and therefore enabling core VNT reconfiguration. To obtain quality metro-flow models, we propose an estimation algorithmthat processes monitored data and returns a predictive model. In addition, a flow controller is proposed for the control architecture to allow metro and core controllers to exchange metro-flow model information. The proposed model aggregation is evaluated through exhaustive simulation, and eventually experimentally assessed together with the flow controller in a testbed connecting premises in CNIT (Pisa, Italy) and UPC (Barcelona, Spain).Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Renal transplantation in the modern immunosuppressive era in Spain: four-year results from a multicenter database focus on post-transplant cardiovascular disease

Producción CientíficaTo evaluate cardiovascular disease (CVD) after renal transplantation we established a CVD database (no-intervention) including all patients transplanted among 2000–2002 in 14 hospitals from Spain (Renal Forum Group) (n¼2600). They were prospective followed annually thereafter and we present herein the most important results concerning survival figures and CVD at four years. Mean recipient age was 49.7±13.7 years: 16% retransplanted and 12.5% hyperimmunized. Tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and steroids was used in 63%. Acute rejection (AR) rate at 1 year was 14.8%. Graft and patient survival at 48 months were 85.6% (death censored) and 91.7% respectively. The first cause of graft loss was vascular in the first year, death with function during the 2–3 years, and chronic allograft nephropathy at the 4th year. Donor age, time on dialysis, acute tubular necrosis (ATN), AR, SCr at 6 months, the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers in the first year, and systolic blood pressure at 24 months were independent risk factors for graft loss at 4th year. The first cause of death was CVD (predominantly ischemic heart disease (IHD) in the first year). Recipient age, ATN, and SCr at 6 months were independent predictors of mortality. Despite worsening of donor age, comorbidity, and advanced age of recipients, survival figures at four years are considered good in our Spanish non-selected population. Cardiovascular mortality is the most important cause of death and graft loss particularly, IHD in the first year. Therefore, to decrease post-transplant mortality a careful cardiovascular evaluation and treatment in the waiting list and a close follow-up of patients after transplantation is mandatory

Selected Schizosaccharomyces pombe Strains Have Characteristics That Are Beneficial for Winemaking

At present, wine is generally produced using Saccharomyces yeast followed by Oenococus bacteria to complete malolactic fermentation. This method has some unsolved problems, such as the management of highly acidic musts and the production of potentially toxic products including biogenic amines and ethyl carbamate. Here we explore the potential of the fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe to solve these problems. We characterise an extensive worldwide collection of S. pombe strains according to classic biochemical parameters of oenological interest. We identify three genetically different S. pombe strains that appear suitable for winemaking. These strains compare favourably to standard Saccharomyces cerevisiae winemaking strains, in that they perform effective malic acid deacidification and significantly reduce levels of biogenic amines and ethyl carbamate precursors without the need for any secondary bacterial malolactic fermentation. These findings indicate that the use of certain S. pombe strains could be advantageous for winemaking in regions where malic acid is problematic, and these strains also show superior performance with respect to food safety

Predictive Power of the "Trigger Tool" for the detection of adverse events in general surgery: a multicenter observational validation study

Background In spite of the global implementation of standardized surgical safety checklists and evidence-based practices, general surgery remains associated with a high residual risk of preventable perioperative complications and adverse events. This study was designed to validate the hypothesis that a new “Trigger Tool” represents a sensitive predictor of adverse events in general surgery. Methods An observational multicenter validation study was performed among 31 hospitals in Spain. The previously described “Trigger Tool” based on 40 specific triggers was applied to validate the predictive power of predicting adverse events in the perioperative care of surgical patients. A prediction model was used by means of a binary logistic regression analysis. Results The prevalence of adverse events among a total of 1,132 surgical cases included in this study was 31.53%. The “Trigger Tool” had a sensitivity and specificity of 86.27% and 79.55% respectively for predicting these adverse events. A total of 12 selected triggers of overall 40 triggers were identified for optimizing the predictive power of the “Trigger Tool”. Conclusions The “Trigger Tool” has a high predictive capacity for predicting adverse events in surgical procedures. We recommend a revision of the original 40 triggers to 12 selected triggers to optimize the predictive power of this tool, which will have to be validated in future studies

Effectiveness of an intervention for improving drug prescription in primary care patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy:Study protocol of a cluster randomized clinical trial (Multi-PAP project)

This study was funded by the Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias ISCIII (Grant Numbers PI15/00276, PI15/00572, PI15/00996), REDISSEC (Project Numbers RD12/0001/0012, RD16/0001/0005), and the European Regional Development Fund ("A way to build Europe").Background: Multimorbidity is associated with negative effects both on people's health and on healthcare systems. A key problem linked to multimorbidity is polypharmacy, which in turn is associated with increased risk of partly preventable adverse effects, including mortality. The Ariadne principles describe a model of care based on a thorough assessment of diseases, treatments (and potential interactions), clinical status, context and preferences of patients with multimorbidity, with the aim of prioritizing and sharing realistic treatment goals that guide an individualized management. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention that implements the Ariadne principles in a population of young-old patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. The intervention seeks to improve the appropriateness of prescribing in primary care (PC), as measured by the medication appropriateness index (MAI) score at 6 and 12months, as compared with usual care. Methods/Design: Design:pragmatic cluster randomized clinical trial. Unit of randomization: family physician (FP). Unit of analysis: patient. Scope: PC health centres in three autonomous communities: Aragon, Madrid, and Andalusia (Spain). Population: patients aged 65-74years with multimorbidity (≥3 chronic diseases) and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs prescribed in ≥3months). Sample size: n=400 (200 per study arm). Intervention: complex intervention based on the implementation of the Ariadne principles with two components: (1) FP training and (2) FP-patient interview. Outcomes: MAI score, health services use, quality of life (Euroqol 5D-5L), pharmacotherapy and adherence to treatment (Morisky-Green, Haynes-Sackett), and clinical and socio-demographic variables. Statistical analysis: primary outcome is the difference in MAI score between T0 and T1 and corresponding 95% confidence interval. Adjustment for confounding factors will be performed by multilevel analysis. All analyses will be carried out in accordance with the intention-to-treat principle. Discussion: It is essential to provide evidence concerning interventions on PC patients with polypharmacy and multimorbidity, conducted in the context of routine clinical practice, and involving young-old patients with significant potential for preventing negative health outcomes. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02866799Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks